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style=\"text-align: center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\u9ec4\u91d1\" src=\"https:\/\/hx24-prod.mars-block.com\/image\/news\/2026\/02\/16\/1771222268309915.webp?x-oss-process=image\/quality,q_50\/format,webp\" data-href=\"\" title=\"\u522b\u518d\u62ff\u9ec4\u91d1\u8bf4\u4e8b\u4e86\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0d\u662f\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u63d2\u56fe3\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u5408\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u771f\u6b63\u4f20\u8fbe\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff1aEngle\u2013Granger \u534f\u6574\u68c0\u9a8c\u5e76\u672a\u53d1\u73b0\u4efb\u4f55\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5168\u6837\u672c\u7684 p \u503c\u4e3a 0.44\uff0c\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u7684 0.05 \u663e\u8457\u6027\u9608\u503c\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u770b\u6eda\u52a8\u7684\u4e24\u5e74\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u5728 31 \u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728 5% \u663e\u8457\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ef7\u5dee\u6b8b\u5dee\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u662f\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u4e00\u70b9\u7684 BTC \/ \u9ec4\u91d1\u6bd4\u503c \u770b\u8d77\u6765\u7565\u5fae\u300c\u4e50\u89c2\u300d\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u597d\u4e0d\u5230\u54ea\u53bb\u3002\u5bf9\u8be5\u6bd4\u503c\u505a ADF \u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ea\u662f\u52c9\u5f3a\u5e73\u7a33\uff08p = 0.034\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u5f31\u7684\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5176\u534a\u8870\u671f\u5927\u7ea6\u662f 216 \u5929\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5c06\u8fd1 7 \u4e2a\u6708\u2014\u2014\u6162\u5f97\u79bb\u8c31\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u6df9\u6ca1\u5728\u566a\u58f0\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u5f53\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u770b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u7ea6\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e 16 \u76ce\u53f8\u9ec4\u91d1\uff0c\u6bd4\u5386\u53f2\u5747\u503c 14.4 \u9ad8\u51fa\u7ea6 11%\u3002\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684 z-score \u4e3a -2.62\uff0c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f3c\u4e4e\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ec4\u91d1\u300c\u504f\u4fbf\u5b9c\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5173\u952e\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bfb\u6570\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u9ec4\u91d1\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u629b\u7269\u7ebf\u5f0f\u4e0a\u6da8\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u3001\u4f1a\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u62c9\u56de\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u4e24\u7c7b\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff1a\u9ec4\u91d1\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u719f\u7684\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff1b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5219\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6070\u597d\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0a\u6da8\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5728\u8bf4\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u7b80\u8981\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u901f\u6210\u7248\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>Engle\u2013Granger \u68c0\u9a8c \u662f\u5224\u65ad\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u5148\u5bf9\u4e24\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u505a\u56de\u5f52\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u68c0\u9a8c\u56de\u5f52\u6b8b\u5dee\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u300c\u4ef7\u5dee\u300d\uff09\u662f\u5426\u5e73\u7a33\u2014\u2014\u662f\u5426\u56f4\u7ed5\u67d0\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5747\u503c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u65e0\u9650\u6f02\u79fb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6b8b\u5dee\u662f\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e24\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u5b58\u5728\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>ADF \u68c0\u9a8c\uff08Augmented Dickey-Fuller\uff09\u7528\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u662f\u5426\u5e73\u7a33\u3002\u5b83\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u300c\u5355\u4f4d\u6839\u300d\uff0c\u901a\u4fd7\u70b9\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e8f\u5217\u662f\u4f1a\u4e00\u8def\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u53d1\u6563\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u56de\u5230\u5747\u503c\u3002<br \/>p \u503c\u4f4e\u4e8e 0.05\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u62d2\u7edd\u300c\u5355\u4f4d\u6839\u300d\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8be5\u5e8f\u5217\u662f\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u534a\u8870\u671f\uff08Half-life\uff09\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u53d1\u751f\u5f97\u6709\u591a\u5feb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ef7\u5dee\u7684\u534a\u8870\u671f\u662f 30 \u5929\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u5f53\u5b83\u88ab\u62c9\u5f00\u540e\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u5c31\u80fd\u4fee\u590d\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u504f\u79bb\u3002<br \/>\u534a\u8870\u671f\u77ed\uff1d\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u503c\uff1b<br \/>\u534a\u8870\u671f\u5f88\u957f\uff1d\u9664\u4e86\u300c\u957f\u671f\u6301\u6709\u7948\u7977\u300d\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u89c9\u5f97\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u628a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u786c\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f20\u7edf\u91d1\u878d\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e0a\u53bb\u5957\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5f88\u8352\u8c2c\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u6bd4\u8f83\u6765\u8fce\u5408\u5f53\u4e0b\u6700\u7b26\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\uff1a\u4eca\u5929\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u300c\u6570\u5b57\u9ec4\u91d1\u300d\uff0c\u660e\u5929\u5b83\u53c8\u6210\u4e86\u300c\u52a0\u4e86\u6760\u6746\u7684\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u53cd\u800c\u8981\u771f\u5b9e\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e94\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u7684\u9876\u90e8\u548c\u5e95\u90e8\uff0c\u548c\u6807\u666e 500\uff08SPX\uff09\u9ad8\u5ea6\u540c\u6b65\u2014\u2014\u76f4\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1aSPX \u8fd8\u7a33\u7a33\u5730\u7ad9\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u800c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5374\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u9ad8\u70b9\u56de\u64a4\u4e86 40%\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\u9ec4\u91d1\" src=\"https:\/\/hx24-prod.mars-block.com\/image\/news\/2026\/02\/16\/1771222268697540.webp?x-oss-process=image\/quality,q_50\/format,webp\" data-href=\"\" title=\"\u522b\u518d\u62ff\u9ec4\u91d1\u8bf4\u4e8b\u4e86\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0d\u662f\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u63d2\u56fe4\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u628a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u5f53\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u91d1\u5c5e\u2014\u2014\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u4f1a\u628a\u4e00\u79cd\u5e74\u5316\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 50% 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